Donald Trump has reached yet another all time low in his historical failure of a presidency, and this time it’s a mathematical one. After a two week period in which Trump added the controversial Anthony Scaramucci, chaotically subtracted Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus, and then shockingly subtracted Scaramucci as well, Trump is now at his lowest approval rating ever.
The most accurate way to determine an approval rating is to take an average of the various current polls. Different data analysts use different methods of calculating those averages. FiveThirtyEight has its own unique weighted formula, and as of today it has Donald Trump pegged at his lowest approval rating to date: 37.8%. (link). While Trump has scored lower in individual approval rating polls along the way, this is the lowest that his average has ever dipped. What stands out as most remarkable is that the damaging chaos of this latest White House fiasco has not yet been fully factored in.
For instance three of the polls in the current FiveThirtyEight average – Gallup, Ipsos and Rasmussen – were conducted across multi-day cycles that ended on the same day Anthony Scaramucci was fired. That means the majority of people interviewed in those polls were providing their answers before that firing took place. Three other polls in the current average were conducted entirely before Scaramucci’s firing. As Palmer Report reported yesterday (link), a number of members of Trump’s base are vocally upset over Scaramucci’s firing.
So if the controversial behavior of Anthony Scaramucci and the chaos of the Spicer and Priebus departures last week caused some of Donald Trump’s most tepid supporters to give up on him, resulting in the all-time low approval rating, then the next round of polling could take Trump even lower if any of his base gives up on him due to Scaramucci’s firing. By this time next week, Donald Trump could be looking at another all time low approval rating.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report