Allen Lichtman, an American political historian, had correctly predicted three decades of presidential elections when he made the surprising forecast in 2016 that Donald Trump would win. Perhaps he was aware of Russian attacks on our election before the rest of us (he did co-create the prediction model with a Russian seismologist). Either way, he has often been accurate when making political prognostications. Lichtman’s latest forecast does not bode well for Trump.
In a recent interview, Lichtman stated that he believes Trump will be impeached this year. “If [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller comes up with some devastating findings, the Democratic base will demand impeachment,” he stated. “I think [Trump] is in grave peril from the Mueller probe.” Sure, at this point it seems abundantly clear that the new Democratic House majority will vote to impeach, but, according to Lichtman, Trump’s endangerment does not end there.
Lichtman also foresees there being enough votes in the Senate to remove Trump as well. “I can’t believe [Mueller] has been working all this time just to say: Sorry, nothing to see here,” said Lichtman. “I think there are going to be some very serious findings from Mueller directly tying the Trump campaign to the Russians.” He went on to mention that Trump’s increasing chances of being removed from office are not only due to the Mueller investigation, citing the multitude of other investigations into Trump and his family.
With additional indictments from Mueller’s investigation almost certainly dropping sometime in the near future, Lichtman predicts enough Republican Senators will fear for their own future reelection if they remain staunch allies to Trump. “The way in which Trump could be impeached and removed would be if Republicans think he is going to drag them down with him,” said Lichtman. “They don’t have any personal loyalty to Trump. They are worried about antagonizing his base and losing Republican primaries. But if they think he is going to be a political liability, they may be willing to abandon him.” While there are several of Lichtman’s previous predictions I wish never came true, this is one we can certainly hope comes to fruition.
I’m a ceramic engineer living in Central New York, avid sports fan but find myself more interested in politics lately.