Never look at just one poll out of context. Always look at the polling averages. But when things are already trending in a certain direction, and one major poll takes a jump further in that direction, it can be a harbinger for what’s to come. That’s why Trump should be worried about what just happened in the Gallup poll.
The Gallup poll has always jumped around a little too much for my liking. For instance, while Trump’s approval rating average climbed a few points into the low-mid forties in the spring, Gallup had him spiking all the way to 49%. That number never fit with the averages. But as recently as six weeks ago, Gallup still had Trump at 49%; it stubbornly refused to budge, even as Trump began to inch downward in other polls. Now, however, Trump has suddenly plummeted to 38% in the Gallup poll, putting him below the averages.
Now that Donald Trump has plummeted eleven points in the Gallup poll, it’ll be worth watching to see if he plunges in the other less-jumpy polls as well. Forty percent is essentially a baseline of zero for a sitting President; if he has an approval rating in the thirties, it generally means he’s out of the game and not in contention for reelection. Trump now appears to be on the verge of dropping below that mark. Stay tuned.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report