Just a week ago, the usual doomcasters were wringing their hands again over one cherry picked poll from ABC and the Washington Post that showed the former guy leading President Biden in a 2024 rematch, and winning decisively.
The obvious problem, apart from this poll being a major outlier, when all of the other major ones showed him ahead, is that it showed Donald Trump winning the youth vote, when Republicans have lost that by over twenty points in the last two major general elections – in 2020 and 2022. It’s one major reason Democrats made so many gains last year.
Now, a new poll shows President Biden beating the former guy by seven points, expanding the popular vote lead he had in 2020 when he won by 4.5 points. You’re probably not going to see this touted in the media nearly as much, particularly as the GOP primary is continuing to heat up. There’s another statistic, however, aside from this poll that has Biden winning independents by 14 points – and it’s the fact that nearly 68% of this group don’t want the former guy to ever be president again.
We’re in an era where despite what people say about wanting their candidate to say positive things, negative partisanship plays the biggest role in how people vote. That doesn’t mean we should get complacent about 2024 – but it says that if we put in the work now, we can and will win.
James Sullivan is the assistant editor of Brain World Magazine and an advocate of science-based policy making