Donald Trump is currently behind in every national poll, and he’s behind in the polling averages in every swing state. He’s even facing close battles in Georgia and Arizona, two traditionally red states that are on the verge of becoming swing states. But if you really want a sign of how much trouble Trump is in right now, take a look at the red states where he’s supposed to win easily.
At Palmer Report we always urge you to look at the polling averages, as opposed to individual polls, whenever possible. The thing is, some states are supposed to be so far out of presidential contention, not enough polling has been done there to look at the averages. Still, when we take a look at some individual new poll numbers in a couple of red states, they’re mind bending.
One new poll says Biden is within three points of Trump in Utah. Another new poll says Biden is within four points of Trump in Missouri. These numbers are on the border of the margin of error, which means these polls are suggesting that these two states are seriously in play.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Biden and the democrats should start shifting resources to states like Utah and Missouri at the expense of other more easily winnable states. It’s way too early for that. But there’s the premise that says a rising tide floats all boats. Biden is seeing competitive numbers in Trump’s supposed “safe” states because he’s doing so well across the board to begin with.
There is still a lot of legwork to be done to win the election, and you have to proceed under the premise that no lead is safe. But when Trump is looking at the dreaded prospect of being “statistically tied” in some red states that even we thought he was going to win easily, he has a real problem.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report