The part that’s still being glossed over is that the Manhattan DA criminal investigation into Trump has been going since late 2019. This isn’t some new probe coming out of nowhere. This is the final stage of a long running process that the media largely ignored until yesterday.
The DA has already empaneled at least one grand jury in the case against Trump, to subpoena Trump’s tax returns. This new grand jury is solely for endgame indictments. The criminal case has already been built and is ready to go.
In fact the 2019 subpoena of Trump’s tax returns proved that the Manhattan criminal case has been serious for quite some time. The media heavily covered the resulting supreme court battle over Trump’s returns, but largely sidestepped the underlying criminal case against Trump.
So why is this “endgame” grand jury empaneled for the next six months? It’ll likely indict Weisselberg first, push him to flip and testify against Trump, and so on. And Trump will likely be indicted on numerous charges. Each one is a separate presentation to the grand jury.
What are the odds the DA will ask the grand jury to indict Trump? 100%. He wouldn’t have empaneled a special grand jury if he were only looking to indict underlings. What are the odds the grand jury will agree to indict him? 99%, given how the process usually goes.
So we’re looking at a near-certain Trump indictment sometime in the second half of 2021, followed by trial sometime in 2022. We’ll see if the media starts claiming Trump’s downfall will somehow magically make him viable in 2024. If so, it’ll just be fictional hype for ratings.
In any case, since people are asking how CNN can be reporting tonight that this “new” criminal probe is an “advanced stage,” the answer is that it’s not remotely new. It’s an 18 month probe nearing the finish line. Just as Palmer Report spent the past 18 months documenting.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report