Even though the Republican Party and Republican National Committee are still clearly afraid of getting on Donald Trump’s bad side, his supposed grip on Republican voters is being vastly overstated by the media. That became clear when the conservative CPAC conference held a poll about 2024 back in February, and barely half of the attendees said Trump was their first choice for 2024. Now there’s more data to back this up.
John Bolton has commissioned a new poll which shows that Trump’s favorability with Republican voters has indeed dropped off significantly since he left office. If Bolton told us that the sky was blue, we wouldn’t take him at his word without first getting outside confirmation. But when you combine Bolton’s poll with the February CPAC poll, it shows a fairly clear trend.
It’s not surprising that Donald Trump is steadily losing his grip on Republican voters. First of all, conservatives like a “winner” and Trump just lost by seven million votes. He claims it was rigged against him, but not all Republican voters believe that lie; many of them understand that he simply lost badly.
In addition, now that Trump is cut off from social media, he can’t keep up the con that he’s an assertive leader. And now that the January 6th Capitol attack has led many mainstream Americans to finally view Trump supporters as pariahs, plenty of Republican voters are naturally going to decide that they need to find a new conservative bullshitter to get behind.
This still leaves the major problem of Republican voters lining up behind some new corrupt fascist monster in 2024 who doesn’t have as much documented baggage as Donald Trump now has. But it does make more clear than ever that Trump is not going to be a 2024 candidate – or at least not a real one – and that if he does announce he’s going to run, it’ll be a mere cash grab to pay for his criminal defense once New York arrests him.
All that said, the media is still desperate to keep the “Trump 2024” narrative alive, because it’s good for ratings, as it scares people into staying tuned in. They know he’ll be in prison by then, but they want to milk the “Trump 2024” conversation for ratings in 2021 and 2022. To that end, various major media pundits are already trying to spin Trump’s falling numbers as if they were actually good news for him, because they could be falling even further.
The real danger heading into 2024 is that if we allow the media to distract us into believing that Trump is going to be the nominee, we’ll fail to be vigilant about the next crop of horrible Republican presidential candidates who will soon surface.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report