There’s a clear path for the Democrats to take the House majority – and this is it

While it’s far too early to claim to know anything about how the 2024 presidential election will play out, we do in fact already have strong insight into what the 2024 House races will look like. That’s because the makeup of the vast majority of House districts is such that either the Democrat or the Republican is near-guaranteed to win there each time. Out of 435 House districts, only a small fraction of them have the kind of voter makeup that allows for a close competitive race – and the House majority is always determined by those close competitive races.

Some nonpartisan outlets have already issued their preliminary list of House races that they expect to end up being toss ups, or only slightly leaning toward one party or the other. Now the DCCC itself has posted its “Frontline” roster for 2024. The DCCC believes that these specific incumbent House Democrats will find themselves in the most closely competitive 2024 races.

This is important because the DNC and the DCCC did a really strong job in 2022 of identifying the specific House races that were most likely to end up being highly competitive, and thus the most likely to determine the House majority. It’s part of why the Democrats were able to defy predictions that they’d get blown out by forty seats or more, and instead nearly won the House majority.

So as we gear up for 2024, we’re going to give a lot of weight to this DCCC “frontline” list when it comes to our recommendations for which competitive House races you should all focus your donations or volunteer hours on. For now take a look at this list. These are the specific House Democrats we’ll need to work hard to help get reelected in 2024 in order to take the majority:

Mary Peltola (AK-AL)

Mike Levin (CA-49)

Yadira Caraveo (CO-08)

Jahana Hayes (CT-05)

Nikki Budzinski (IL-13)

Eric Sorensen (IL-17)

Frank Mrvan (IN-01)

Sharice Davids (KS-03)

Jared Golden (ME-02)

Hillary Scholten (MI-03)

Dan Kildee (MI-08)

Angie Craig (MN-02)

Don Davis (NC-01)

Wiley Nickel (NC-13)

Chris Pappas (NH-01)

Gabriel Vasquez (NM-02)

Susie Lee (NV-03)

Steven Horsford (NV-04)

Pat Ryan (NY-18)

Greg Landsman (OH-01)

Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)

Emilia Sykes (OH-13)

Andrea Salinas (OR-06)

Susan Wild (PA-07)

Matt Cartwright (PA-08)

Chris Deluzio (PA-17)

Abigail Spanberger (VA-07)

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)

Kim Schrier (WA-08)