I’m a big fan of polling averages. They tell us which races are most competitive, and they have a strong track record of being proven correct in the end (as opposed to individual polls). But this week we’ve been flooded with Republican-commissioned polls aimed at giving the false impression the Republicans have it locked up, so you’ll give up and stop putting in the work.
Typically you’ll have one or two Republican-commissioned polls (and maybe even one or two Democratic-commissioned polls) tossed into the polling averages, and it doesn’t end up making much of a difference in the overall average. But over the past week we’ve seemingly seen more commissioned polls released than real polls. This skews the averages heavily in the Republicans’ favor. They know that if they can convince you into believing you’re going to lose anyway, you won’t spend these final days phone banking or knocking on doors.
Don’t fall for it. We already know which House and Senate races are competitive. Any race that was a “toss up” a week ago is still a toss up. Put in the work volunteering for competitive candidates these next eight days, and that’ll make a far bigger difference than any predictions about whether we’re going to win or lose.
– For crying out loud, let’s stop making these panic posts on social media about how right wingers are going to start a “civil war.” No they aren’t. Not a successful one anyway. By openly cowering like this, you’re just handing leverage to the right wingers who are trying to use the implied threat of a civil war to get their way on things.
– Tweet of the day, from @Peechy9873 – “I have a friend who has only ever voted in a midterm election once in her life. She is technically an independent voter but is fed up with the GOP going after our human rights. She is fired up to vote in this election because she and her son are members of the LGBTQ+ community.”
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report