The bottom has fallen out for Donald Trump
Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who has been anti-Trump for a long time and thus counts for “reasonable” in Republican terms these days, appears to be trying to position himself for a presidential run in 2024. Whether you like Hogan or not, he’s probably not a viable candidate. But Hogan’s argument does spell out why Trump isn’t particularly viable for 2024 either.
During his appearance on this past weekend’s Sunday morning talk show circuit, Larry Hogan pointed out that while polling once showed that 80% of Republican voters wanted Trump to be their party’s 2024 presidential nominee, that number is now down to 50%. What Hogan left out is that the number dropped from 80% to 50% a long time ago, shortly after Trump left office amid a violent cloud of controversy. But the larger point is this: the number never has bounced back.
That’s right, even as most of the mainstream media has spent the past year-plus chasing ratings by insisting that Trump is a lock for 2024, this kind of hype hasn’t boosted Trump’s prospects any. He’s still stuck with just about half of Republican voters wanting him to be the 2024 nominee, even without a clear alternative having emerged. In other words, half of Republican voters are basically saying “anyone but Trump in 2024.”
It should be noted that Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters is higher than 50%. It means that, unfortunately, most Republican voters still like the psychotic monster and the horrid things he stands for. But even many of them have figured out that Trump is toast and has no chance of winning in 2024, so they’d rather move on to supporting some new psychotic monster who might have a better shot at winning.
None of this opens the door for a “sane” Republican like Larry Hogan in 2024. Most Republican voters are looking for the next Trump, not the anti-Trump. But there doesn’t appear to be a next Trump on the horizon, given that a full year of media hype (on the left and right) about Ron DeSantis hasn’t exactly helped his numbers.
We’ll see where the center of the Republican Party ends up being two years form now. Plenty will happen between now and then. But the one thing that is clear is that the future does not include Donald Trump, because Donald Trump has no future. Republican leaders know he’s done. Republican voters know he’s done. An increasing number of Trump supporters know he’s done. Outside of the media hype bubble, Trump 2024 does not exist. Trump has, simply put, bottomed out.
