The 2022 midterm numbers just turned a corner

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Even as Donald Trump continues to hog the headlines on his way to prison, Trump’s downfall is not nearly as urgent or important right now as the fact that a bunch of mini-Trumps are trying to seize control of Congress in about seven weeks. If they win the House or the Senate they’ll bring President Biden’s legislative agenda to an end, and they’ll launch bogus committee investigations into all kinds of fake scandals.

For the past month the Democrats have been considered the favorites to win the Senate, and its a toss-up as to whether they can add the two seats needed to override the filibuster and do everything they want to do. Democratic activists simply need to put in the work on the most competitive Senate races in order to keep those numbers trending in the Democratic candidates’ direction.

The tricky part is the House. To give you an idea of how heavily the 2022 midterm House races are stacked in favor of the Republicans, as recently as a couple months ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe model gave the Democrats just a 13% chance of keeping the House. Talk about a long shot. But as of now, that 13% number has more than doubled to 28%. Further, FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model now gives the Democrats a 41% chance of winning the House – the highest that number has climbed to date.

Polls and projections are just an interpretive snapshot. But these FiveThirtyEight numbers now make three things clear. First, the House is clearly within reach for the Democrats. When you have 41% odds of winning, you’re almost in toss-up territory. Second, the numbers keep trending in the Democrats’ direction, which is precisely the position you want to be in when you’re talking about a tossup. Third, with just seven weeks left, the Democrats need help in order to get over the top.

That’s where you come in. Out of 435 House races around the country, only about 10% to 12% of them are projected to be competitive enough to come down to the wire. These are the races that will decide the House majority.

So what can you do? If you have money, donate to these races. Many of them are lower profile, so even a small donation can make a big difference. If you have time, sign up to volunteer. They’re labeled by district, so you can pick the ones that are within driving distance. If you don’t live near any of these races, you can volunteer online from home. If you don’t have time or money to spare, you can help by sharing these candidate links on your Facebook and Twitter pages, so your followers with time or money will see it and contribute in their own way:

Toss-up races (Democratic challenger)

Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Seth Magaziner (Rhode Island): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Annette Taddeo FL-27 (Florida): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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Toss-up races (Democratic incumbent)

Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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Lean-R races

Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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Lean-D races

Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions in this election cycle. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at fairness. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.

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