To hear some of the pundits tell it, now that Donald Trump is (predictably) being acquitted by his own party in the Senate, everything is suddenly about to come up roses for him. He’s going to be “emboldened” – whatever that’s supposed to mean. His base is going to be “fired up” – as if they weren’t going to vote for him already. He’s going to magically get reelected now, despite zero evidence to support this.
These kinds of narratives are nothing more than histrionic doomsday nonsense aimed at playing on your worst fears, and manipulating you into believing that Trump is going to magically become emperor unless you sit paralyzed in front of your TV all day and listen to even more hysterical doomsday prognostications. None of it’s based in reality. You want to talk about what’s really going to happen between now and November?
Donald Trump won’t suddenly be “emboldened” to do anything new. He’s spent the past three years carrying out one corrupt scheme in office after another. His schemes have all been so ineffective, it’s left him with a roughly 40% approval rating, and very difficult odds of winning in 2020. Now that he’s being acquitted, he’s simply going to keep carrying out the same dimwitted antics, with the same kinds of results. Unless Trump’s acquittal is somehow going to turn him into a smarter criminal, nothing will change on this front.
As far as this acquittal somehow magically causing Donald Trump to win in 2020, that’s one of those completely nonsensical narratives that isn’t supported by one shred of logic or evidence, and only “sounds reasonable” because you’ve heard the TV pundits repeat over and over and over again. But back in the real world, Trump entered this trial with a roughly 40% approval rating, which gave him no chance in 2020. He’s exiting the trial with the same approval rating, and thus the same total lack of competitiveness in 2020. This was a major opportunity for him, at time when he’s running out of time, and he got nothing out of it.
What we’ll see between now and November 2020 will be the same old, same old. Donald Trump will try some more dimwitted corrupt schemes that’ll work about as well for him as his Ukraine scheme did. Trump’s election numbers will remain about the same as they are now. The results will come down entirely to whether the Resistance spends this year whining and crying about how Trump is going to magically win, or whether the Resistance simply puts in the work required to win. It’s as simple as that. Everything else is just noise.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report