New trouble for Lauren Boebert

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When House Republican Lauren Boebert recently switched from Colorado’s 3rd District to its 4th District for the 2024 election, it was a head scratcher. The 3rd District is more moderate, but Boebert was likely to be the Republican nominee there, and she might have had a 40% of beating the Democrat in the general election. The 4th District is far more right wing, but while the Republican nominee almost automatically wins there, Boebert was always going to face serious trouble winning the nomination.

While primary polling can be particularly sketchy, one recent poll suggested that Boebert might only get ten percent of the vote in the Colorado 4th District’s crowded Republican primary race. Now the anecdotal stories are coming in, helping to confirm that even though the 4th District is far right, the people there don’t seem to like her much:

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Incumbency can be a huge advantage for a candidate. Even if voters don’t love you, they have to worry that the new candidate might get into office and end up being even worse. It’s the whole “devil you know” thing.

Lauren Boebert threw away her incumbency when she switched districts for the 2024 race. On a national level we see her as a sitting member of Congress seeking reelection. But the voters in Colorado’s 4th District see her as a newcomer to their neck of the woods, with a bad track record from her previous job. There’s a good chance she’ll lose the primary race to another Republican, and then her career will be over.

Meanwhile Democratic candidate Adam Frisch, who came within about 500 votes of defeating Boebert in 2022, is once again running in Colorado’s 3rd District in 2024. He’s still waiting for a Republican opponent, but now is the time to get behind Frisch.

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