Kevin McCarthy is toast. Here’s what happens now.

It looks like House Democrats will sit back and let House Republicans oust Kevin McCarthy today. What happens then? House Republicans will nominate other people, who (at least initially) won’t have the votes. House Democrats will nominate Hakeem Jeffries, who won’t have the votes. Then the fun begins.

The biggest chunk of House Republicans will desperately try to unite behind someone (just like last time). But unless a behind the scenes deal has been made, the sedition caucus will try to increase their leverage by voting against whoever the pick is (just like last time).

From there it becomes a battle of wills within the Republican House. Does the sedition caucus stand its ground and cause multiple rounds of votes to fail, and risk causing the House Republicans in toss-up districts to panic and cut a deal with the Democrats?

That’s where it becomes difficult to predict. This is being led by Matt Gaetz, who’s already been warned that he’ll be expelled for this stunt. He doesn’t understand or doesn’t care that he’s ending himself with all this. He’s not playing with a full deck, to put it mildly. So there’s no predicting how far he’ll take this.

We could even see wacky things like fifteen rounds of votes and then Gaetz and the sedition caucus back down and let McCarthy back in as Speaker. Who knows? These idiots have no plan, no specific desired outcome. They just want to amuse themselves with unhinged mischief.

Keep in mind that no one can become Speaker without 218 votes. Gaetz himself has zero chance of becoming Speaker. Donald Trump is not going to become Speaker, no matter how many panicked tweets we see about it. These are not people who can get 218 votes. We’ll see who can.

If you’re wondering what your messaging should be during all this chaos today: none of this embarrassing nonsense happens when the Democrats are in charge of the House.