How Senate Democrats win Trump’s impeachment trial

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Senate Democrats get a “win” in this week’s impeachment trial if the public is educated on Trumpโ€™s guilt, and demand for his criminal prosecution increases, whether heโ€™s convicted or not. If Democrats do that, and Republicans still refuse to convict, itโ€™ll hurt the Republicans in 2022 and itโ€™ll be a loss for them.

Trump does not magically win if heโ€™s acquitted. Heโ€™s headed to prison anyway. The Republicans lose if they acquit Trump, because Democrats can use it against them in 2022. There is no scenario where the Democrats โ€œloseโ€ this trial, unless it somehow makes Trump more popular.

And no, Trumpโ€™s base can not make him more popular. As we just saw in an election where he lost by seven million votes, Trumpโ€™s base isnโ€™t close to being large enough to be of any use to him. Trump would have to win over the people in the middle, which heโ€™s never been able to do.

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