Senate Democrats get a “win” in this week’s impeachment trial if the public is educated on Trump’s guilt, and demand for his criminal prosecution increases, whether he’s convicted or not. If Democrats do that, and Republicans still refuse to convict, it’ll hurt the Republicans in 2022 and it’ll be a loss for them.
Trump does not magically win if he’s acquitted. He’s headed to prison anyway. The Republicans lose if they acquit Trump, because Democrats can use it against them in 2022. There is no scenario where the Democrats “lose” this trial, unless it somehow makes Trump more popular.
And no, Trump’s base can not make him more popular. As we just saw in an election where he lost by seven million votes, Trump’s base isn’t close to being large enough to be of any use to him. Trump would have to win over the people in the middle, which he’s never been able to do.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report