House Republicans now fear Donald Trump will take them down with him
Even though Donald Trump will be put through three criminal trials before the 2024 election, each of which will send him to prison, the media and pundit class is still near-unanimously chanting that Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee no matter what. Trump is weeks or days away from being indicted under the Espionage Act, and we’re still hearing this crap about him being a lock for the 2024 nomination. It’s becoming a farce. But here’s the thing.
Because the entire media (on both sides) is still hyping “Trump 2024” as if it’s going to be a real thing, even Republican politicians seem to be accepting this as an inevitable outcome (the reality of three criminal trials be damned). To that end, the vulnerable House Republicans running in toss up districts are now fretting behind the scenes that Trump’s unpopularity could cost them their seats in 2024.
This part is accurate. If Trump does somehow end up being the 2024 Republican nominee, he’ll already be in prison by that time, meaning no one anywhere near the middle will vote for him. He’d only get the support of his too-small base, meaning he’d lose in a historic blowout. And yes, the Republicans would likely lose the House and Senate as a result.
But it also underscores how sort of obvious it is that the Republicans aren’t likely to nominate a guy who by that time will be a convicted felon serving consecutive prison sentences. Trump going to prison will create a vacuum within the Republican primary, and presuming Ron DeSantis doesn’t figure out how to stop being Ron DeSantis, that vacuum will logically be filled by some right wing outsider who may not even be from the political arena (think Trump in 2016). And that outsider could end up being a real problem, because he or she would enter the race without the proper vetting (also think Trump in 2016).
Of course the more immediate story is that House Republicans in toss up districts are now rebelling against Donald Trump openly. First they forced Kevin McCarthy to cave to President Biden in order to avoid a default, against Trump’s loud public objections, because they knew a default could cost them their seats. Now they’re grumbling to the media about how much they don’t want Trump on the 2024 ticket.
This comes days after Texas Republicans impeached Trump’s close ally Ken Paxton, also over Trump’s loud public objections. For all the pundit chatter about how Trump has as much control over the Republican Party as ever, there’s zero evidence to support that claim, and more evidence by the day that shows the opposite. Republican politicians are starting to move on from Trump. They’re only doing it for selfish reasons. And they’re only doing it because they think he’s toast now anyway, with the Espionage Act and all. But it is clear that even the Republicans think Trump is toast. It’s only the media who still pretends not to see it.
