House midterm race shakeup

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Twenty-four hours after a Democrat won a special election for a U.S. House seat in Alaska of all places, there is still widespread debate as to how much of the upset was caused by the particulars of this one race, and how much of it is due to actual Democratic Party momentum. But given that Alaska is just the latest in a recent string of House special elections where the Democrats have outperformed their expected numbers every time, it’s more than fair to call this the start of a trend.

To that end, a number of House races are now being reclassified by the experts. For instance, even though Alaska’s winner Mary Peltola will have to turn around and win again in November, she’ll now be doing so under far better circumstances. Cook Political Report, which had the Alaska special election rated “Likely Republican,” now says that Peltola’s November reelection bid is a “Toss up.” More to the point, multiple other House races have also been shaken up.

House Democrat Abigail Spanberger has just seen her reelection prospects upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” And Democratic House candidate Robert Zimmerman, running in NY-03, also just saw his race upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” This means they’ll still need your support in order to win, but these races are clearly trending in the right direction.

Meanwhile, House Democrats Greg Stanton and David Trone both just got great news, with Cook having reclassified their reelection races from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” – precisely the kind of trend you like to see.

Cook isn’t the only site that sees things trending in this direction. The odds of the Democrats winning the House has gone up by about twelve points over the past month, according to FiveThirtyEight. In fact one of FiveThirtyEight’s three models says the Republicans are only “slightly” favored to win the House. With the Democrats clearly having the momentum, now is the time for you to dive into these highly competitive House races. Donate, volunteer in person or online, spread the word, and let’s go win this:

Toss-up races

Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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Lean-R races

Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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Lean-D races

Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign websiteDonateVolunteerFollow on Twitter

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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.

Trump is on trial! If each of you reading this can kick in $10 or $25, it'll help keep Palmer Report firing on all cylinders at this crucial time in our nation's history: Donate now
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