Once we saw the gap completely close in Wisconsin and Michigan as the mail-in votes in big cities started to come in, we knew that Joe Biden had a strong chance of closing the gap in Pennsylvania as well. Now Biden has won Wisconsin, and he’s won Michigan big, and he’s indeed closing in Pennsylvania. Here’s the thing.
We were expecting it to take several days – perhaps even into next week – before Pennsylvania could be called for Biden. But Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight now says that while Biden needed to win the remainder of the vote by about 22 points, he’s thus far winning it by about fifty points, meaning he’s very likely to win. Nate Cohn of the New York Times tweeted that at the rate things are going, Pennsylvania could end up being called before Nevada.
SO it’s still not clear precisely when Pennsylvania could be called for Joe Biden – it now looks to be much sooner than the lengthy wait we were expecting. That’s good both in terms of us not having to wait all week on pins and needles, and in terms of Donald Trump not having as much time to try to screw with things.
If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, he’ll be declared the winner of the election – even if Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona haven’t yet been called (some news outlets have called Arizona and some haven’t).
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report