Donald Trump just took another loss

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Barely a month ago, the media and pundit class was still almost uniformly flooding us with the narrative that Donald Trump’s endorsements were crucial in 2022 Republican primary races. Even as the data was starting to make clear that the opposite was true, we kept hearing this narrative ad nauseum. But once Trump’s candidate for Governor of Georgia got blown out by about thirty points, that narrative finally faded.

Last night Trump had another very bad go of it in Republican primary races. Vernon Jones, a former Democrat in Georgia who became a Trump-loving Republican, lost his primary race. In fact Jones wasn’t the only Trump-endorsed Republican in Georgia who lost last night to a fellow Republican.

It’s now more clear than ever that Donald Trump’s endorsements simply don’t move the needle, even with Republican voters. Even in the races where Trump’s candidate has won, Trump’s endorsement generally hasn’t helped. For instance, Mehmet Oz had a two point lead before Trump endorsed him, but never did get a bump from it, and ended up winning by about 0.2 points.


Obviously, yesterday’s January 6th public hearings were Donald Trump’s biggest loss of the day. The hearings, and the revelations therein, were devastating for him. But even as we hear scattered pundit talk about how Trump’s seemingly inevitably DOJ indictment will just “embolden” him to somehow magically win in 2024, his losses last night are a reminder that he has less influence over voters than ever.

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