When a President has an approval rating in the forties, he’s struggling a bit. If it drops into the thirties, he’s pretty much hamstrung and his political muscle is gone. If it drops into the twenties, he’s finished, and his own party will look to rid itself of him.
From the start I’ve predicted that if Donald Trump’s approval rating ever dropped into the twenties, congressional Republicans would selfishly turn against him and seek to oust him. But his approval rating mostly remained in the 35-42% range over the years, just barely enough to keep him afloat. So my theory about what would happen if Trump dropped into the twenties has never been tested – until now.
In a new Pew poll conducted after Trump’s domestic terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol, his approval rating is indeed down to 29%. Of course we think it should be at 0%. But that’s not how these things work, and in reality dropping all the way to 29% is going off a cliff.
This is happening just as Donald Trump has been impeached, and we’re probably about a week away from seeing the start of his impeachment trial in the Senate. He’ll already be out of office by then, but it’ll give Republican Senators a chance to vote on whether to convict him and essentially make him go away forever by banning him from running in 2024. With Trump’s approval rating now in the twenties and potentially dropping even further, it increases the odds that Trump will indeed be convicted.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report