48 HOURS

In 48 hours jury selection will begin in Donald Trump’s first criminal trial. The jury selection process could take days, but as soon as it’s complete, opening arguments will take place. As soon as those are over, the prosecution will immediately put witnesses on the stand like Michael Cohen, David Pecker, and Stormy Daniels who are lined up to take Trump down. Then Trump will put on his defense, which will have no impact. Then he’ll very likely be convicted on thirty-four felonies.

As we head into this trial, it’ll be important to keep in mind that the important aspects of the trial are straightforward and predictable. They’ll play out exactly or very similarly to what I’ve described above, and that’ll be that. But there will also be an extraordinary amount of empty hype during the trial, which will end up being of no consequence.

While the jury is being selected, we’ll hear empty hype about how a Trump supporter is going to slip onto the jury and save Trump. But in reality the courts and prosecutors are much smarter than that when it comes to screening jurors.

While the key prosecution witnesses are testifying, we’ll hear empty hype about how the jury won’t believe Cohen because of his past, or won’t believe Daniels because of her line of work. But in reality that won’t be the case. Their testimony will be taken seriously, and it’ll be corroborated by other witnesses and by documentation.

While Trump’s lawyers are putting on the defense presentation, they’ll try one two-bit antic after another. But none of it will have any impact on the trial, because you can’t “stupid” your way to getting your client acquitted.

Then, once the jury is out, we’ll be subjected to endless scary narratives about how the jury has no more than a 50-50 chance of convicting Trump, when in reality the odds are probably 99% that he’ll be convicted.

The only real mystery in this trial will be the punishment. These are the lowest level felony charges there are. So even if Trump is convicted on all 34 of them, there’s no guarantee the judge will sentence Trump to prison. If Trump does get something other than prison, there will be defeatist cries of “special treatment” and “we’re doomed” when neither of those things will be true. If Trump is sentenced to prison, we’ll still hear endless cries about how he’s going to magically get out of it, even though that’s not a thing. And polling says that Trump will lose serious support if he’s convicted, whether prison is involved or not.

Throughout this trial, it’ll be important to keep in mind that this is merely the first of four criminal trials that Trump is facing. The media will spend this trial either pretending like this is the only trial Trump is facing, or pretending that all of his other trials have been magically pushed back past the election. But in reality none of that’s true. Trump will likely face one or two additional trials before Election Day, and those trials involve the more serious kinds of felony charges where prison is pretty much automatic.

So let’s get ready to watch Donald Trump go on criminal trial. Let’s savor the moment. We’ve earned this. And let’s remember that the same people who are going to tell us that this trial is going well for Trump are the same people who insisted Trump would never go on trial to begin with.