This is what it comes down to

Joe Biden isn’t going to win Florida. Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and North Carolina are looking iffy at best. But here’s the thing: Biden is still on track to win. No, really. It’s just math.

The polls in these five states were close all along, and somewhat erratic in nature. But Biden’s polls have always been solid in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden’s core strategy always centered on flipping them. Nothing has changed in that regard.

The results thus far show that Biden severely underperformed with Cuban voters, but suggest that Biden is outperforming with white suburban voters. This is a good sign for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Biden has had a solid polling lead all along.

Keep in mind that the partial results we’re seeing in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania right now are skewed by the uneven reporting when it comes to in-person vs mail-in votes. It’s the “red mirage” that experts warned us about, and the partial numbers in those three states should be ignored for now.


Joe Biden currently has a definite lead in Arizona, giving him breathing room when it comes to the midwest. This hasn’t exactly been the kind of night that dreams are made of so far – but the evidence still says Biden is likely to win. It’s just math. And at the end of the day, if Biden wins and Trump loses, you’re not going to care whether it’s by 300 electoral votes or 400 electoral votes.

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