This is a “disaster” for Donald Trump
It’s far too early for poll numbers to tell us much about what the 2024 election will end up looking like. But there is some data within the current polling that appears absolutely disastrous for Donald Trump.
2024 polling, on the average, pretty much shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied. The media (on both sides) keeps hyping on the individual polls that have Trump ahead, while mostly ignoring the polls that have Biden ahead, but in reality they’re roughly tied. How can Biden and Trump be tied? Because it’s too early for polls to make sense.
But here’s the thing that does make sense, and that should have Trump (and the Republican Party) rattled. Polling says that if Trump becomes a convicted criminal between now and the election, he’ll lose a ton of voters. Why is this the case? It’s a good reminder that elections go far beyond each candidate’s base. There are millions of people who feel more closely aligned with one side or the other, but don’t automatically go out and vote for that side. And there are clearly a lot of right-leaning voters who are only willing to vote for Trump if they see him as 1) not guilty and 2) not going to prison.
This is a clear enough polling trend that even some Trump’s own allies are reportedly panicking over what a disaster it could end up being. And they’re right to panic. Even if Trump does somehow end up with the Republican nomination, he’s not going to be in position to be a viable candidate in the general election.
Keep in mind that for all the empty doomsday hysteria out there about Trump’s trials somehow never happening, it now looks like his New York criminal trial will take place in March (which is next month!), and his Washington DC criminal trial will take place in April. So not only will Trump be a convicted criminal by the general election, he’ll be a convicted criminal before we even get to this summer’s Republican National Convention.
That’s why it won’t be shocking if they try to take the nomination away from Trump at the convention. These polling numbers say that not only would a convicted Trump lose badly in a general election, he’d take the entire party down with him up and down the ballot.
