Realistically, presidential general election polling exists within a fairly narrow range. Because so many Americans are already locked into one side or the other for various ideological reasons, each candidates starts with about 40%. That means neither candidate can get above 60%. And when you factor in protest votes, neither side can get above about 55%.
In other words, a presidential election basically exists in the 40% to 55% range. Theoretically, a fifteen point lead is the largest you can have. It’s why a four point is considered small, for instance, but an eight point lead is considered large. For one candidate to have a fifteen point lead, the other candidate would have to be a radioactive hyena with rabies.
That brings us to today’s new poll numbers from CNN, which have Joe Biden at 55% and Donald Trump at 41%. Wait a minute here. We just said that, in theory, no one can go any higher than about 55% or any lower than about 40%. So these new poll numbers mean that Trump is so uniquely hated, he’s testing the limits of just how unpopular a general election candidate can be. This is nothing short of stunning.
Of course the key here is that this is just one poll. With the political landscape in America moving quickly right now, we’ll see if the other major polls also show Joe Biden widening his lead when those polls are updated as the week goes on. If the averages confirm that Biden really is up by fourteen points, it’ll mean that if we keep putting in the work, it’ll be entirely realistic to not only put Biden in office, but also flip the Senate.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report