The sky just fell on Jared Kushner

Based on everything that’s been reported, Jared Kushner is almost certainly already under federal criminal investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the SDNY, the EDNY, and probably others as well. Kushner’s alleged crimes range from financial fraud to conspiracy against the United States, and if he’s convicted, he’ll probably go to prison for the rest of his life. So if these criminal prosecutions are already well underway, why did the House Democrats decide to refer Kushner for criminal prosecution today?

In their criminal referral today, Congressmen Ted Lieu and Don Beyer have chosen to focus on one of the least severe, yet easily proven, criminal allegations against Jared Kushner: that he lied on his SF-86 security clearance form. It’s nearly a given that Mueller and others in the DOJ are already criminally pursuing Kushner over this particular bit of perjury, as part of their broader cases against him. But this referral matters for a few reasons.

First, even when someone is potentially facing life in prison for more severe charges, it’s a common tactic to zero in on a process crime like perjury. Kushner may think he can go to trial and get off the hook on the more serious stuff, but juries nearly always convict on perjury when the evidence is there. If Kushner knows he’s going to prison for perjury anyway, he may be more inclined to cut a plea deal on all of the charges.

Second, this prompts the media to focus on the fact that Jared Kushner is an alleged criminal who is seen as a security risk by the FBI, the CIA, and Trump’s own former White House officials. The more the media talks about the criminality of the Trump family, the more it convinces the people in the middle that Donald Trump is running a crime racket.

Third, this may bait Donald Trump into trying to meddle in the criminal case against Jared Kushner. Trump can’t actually save Kushner from going to prison, thanks to the wide array of prosecutors targeting him, including New York State. But if Trump were to try to pardon Kushner on the security clearance perjury matter, it could significantly speed up Trump’s downfall and ouster.