Late on Wednesday night, or technically at 1:10am eastern time on Thursday morning, Donald Trump tweeted a bizarre all-caps outburst about collusion and the supposed “witch hunt” against him. Now that things managed to get much worse for him today, with his friend David Pecker of the National Enquirer having cut an immunity deal against him, many have bene expecting Trump to incoherently explode again tonight. Instead, Trump posted a bizarre argument about how he’s going to be reelected – then he began ranting about Hillary Clinton
Just after midnight, Donald Trump retweeted an article which claimed that when it comes to the 2020 reelection, Trump is “favored more than every other challenger combined.” Nevermind that the odds are Trump will have been impeached and removed well before the 2020 election, and he’ll likely be on trial at the time. Even if Trump did somehow manage to hang on and run for reelection, could the odds actually be in his favor? No, because the gibberish he retweeted was based on a total misunderstanding of how basic math works.
Right off the bat, Trump’s article acknowledges that the betting odds of Trump being reelected in 2020 are “3/2” – which would give him a forty percent chance of being reelected, and a sixty percent chance of not being reelected. Betting odds are based on where gamblers are placing their money, and not necessarily based on the input of anyone who knows anything about politics, so these odds are not to be taken seriously. But even if this were accurate, Trump just cluelessly bragged that the odds are strongly against him being reelected.
Then, as if to compound his own error, Donald Trump quoted an older tweet where he bragged about beating Hillary Clinton, and added “…And according to Polls, would do even better today!” He didn’t reference any polls to support this argument, because there aren’t any. Considering that the original nonsense article about betting odds was posted by Trump’s social media guy Dan Scavino to begin with, and the “would do even better” tweet came just a few minutes later, we’re left to wonder if perhaps Scavino posted it too, and Trump is passed out right now in a bowl of Cheetos.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report