So much for those magic Trump pardons

The jury in the Paul Manafort trial has moved closer to convicting him [Update: he’s been convicted on eight felony counts], which means we’re about to hear a whole lot of breathless speculation about Donald Trump pardoning Manafort. But Palmer Report and some other political analysts have spent a long time explaining why Trump can’t magically pardon his way out of his scandals – and today’s other headlining story is a timely reminder of that.

Michael Cohen cut a plea deal today, and he’s pleading guilty before a judge as we speak. Cohen has clearly concluded that he isn’t getting bailed out of this by a pardon, or else he’d still be holding out. Maybe he’s concluded that Trump won’t pardon him. Maybe he’s concluded that such a pardon won’t work. Either way, Cohen is just the latest Trump underling to conclude that no parachute is coming. That brings us back to the Manafort verdict.

Donald Trump’s recent tweets make clear that his psychological stability is worsening. So what if he goes into a rage tomorrow and does try to pardon Paul Manafort? Numerous legal experts think a pardon of an alleged co-conspirator would be struck down by the courts. Even if it were upheld, Trump can’t pardon Manafort on state level charges. And even if state charges somehow fell through, Manafort would then be facing no jeopardy at all, meaning he’d be required to testify against Trump.

Michael Flynn concluded last year that he wasn’t going to be magically bailed out by a Donald Trump pardon. Rick Gates concluded the same thing this spring. Michael Cohen came to the same conclusion today. These are the people who know Trump best – and they’re so sure that Trump can’t or won’t save them with a pardon, they’ve all agreed to multi year prison sentences instead.