Lauren Boebert’s Republican primary nightmare

Even when we see someone like House Republican Lauren Boebert make stupid move after stupid move, there’s still an odd phenomenon where we instinctively want to assume that she must somehow know what she’s doing.

For instance, Boebert probably would have had a 40% chance of keeping her House seat if she’d remained in Colorado’s 3rd District. Instead she moved to the far more conservative 4th District, where the Republican automatically wins the general election in a blowout. The problem is that there was already a crowded Republican primary field in the 4th District, and now Boebert is running as an outsider instead of an incumbent.

Primary polling can get wacky, but recent polling suggested that Boebert is in fifth place in the Republican primary race in Colorado’s 4th District. So unless the polls are off by a massive amount, she’s in serious danger of losing the primary race. And if she does, that’s it for her.

A lot of people on social media mistakenly thought that Boebert’s fate would be decided today, because the Colorado presidential primary was today. In reality Colorado’s primary voting for House races is on June 25th. So Boebert’s fate won’t be decided until that date. But current polling suggests that it’s shaping up to be a nightmare for her.