Is this the data that points to a midterm Blue Wave?
While Republicans released a flurry of internal polling to create a momentum narrative, last minute polls are beginning to tell a rather different story – showing that Democrats are matching Republicans in both support and voter enthusiasm. Rather than the typical backlash we see against the party of the president in a midterm election, this is looking more and more like a contest that will come down to individual races, dependent on individual candidates – and the GOP has done itself no favors by selecting a number of disastrous candidates who think they can come to power by mimicking the former guy.
Aside from polling, there’s one area where Democrats are showing significant strength – and that’s in the early vote count – something that a handful of election experts are just beginning to study, based on the strength of the early vote. Simon Rosenberg, founder of the New Policy Institute, cites that the data of actual voting tells a much different story – with Democrats having a solid lead on ballots returned. As of Sunday, Democrats led Republicans by 11 points on the early vote – while it was 46-45 at this point just four years ago, the year of the Democratic “Blue Wave.”
What’s even more remarkable, however, is that Democrats are running 3.5 points ahead of their lead at this time in 2020, a presidential election year in which Republicans lost the Senate. We’re voting in numbers like never before – and have already shattered the record for total early voting from 2018. Let’s keep the momentum going! Do what you can to make a difference this year by running up the score and fighting to keep both houses of Congress.
James Sullivan is the assistant editor of Brain World Magazine and an advocate of science-based policy making