Is Putin beginning to lose Belarus too?

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is so deranged, and such a catastrophe for Russia, even some of Putin’s allies have distanced themselves from him. Putin appears to have lost Hungary. And China, which initially signaled it might have been prepared to support Putin’s invasion, has since shifted its rhetoric in the opposite direction.

But Putin has managed to hang onto Belarus, to the point of having its leader announce a likely falsified public referendum essentially turning control of the country over to Putin. Now, however, there are signs that Putin may even be losing Belarus.

Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Belarusian human rights activist Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, tweeted this today: “According to Putin’s plan, Belarus’ troops had to enter Ukraine a week ago. But something went wrong. Some officers resigned, some fled Belarus and contacted us. Conscripts are massively fleeing. Apparently, some generals opposed the participation of Belarus in the war.”

This would explain why Belarus has failed to show up in Ukraine, even after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pledged his country’s loyalty to Putin. It could also explain why, for instance, Putin has been reduced to trying (and failing) to convince nations like Kazakhstan to help him fight in Ukraine. Going forward it’ll be worth watching for additional potential cracks in Putin’s supposed control of Belarus.