Immunity deal signals the end of Matt Gaetz

Prosecutors have granted immunity to Matt Gaetz’s ex-girlfriend in exchange for the testimony she gave to the grand jury last week, per CBS News. This means there’s nearly a 100% chance Gaetz is being criminally indicted.

This comes on top of the news from a few days ago that Gaetz’s associate Joel Greenberg has finally agreed to a sentencing hearing, after having previously pushed back his sentencing multiple times because he wanted to get credit for the results of his cooperation. This suggests Gaetz will be indicted before Greenberg’s hearing.

Greenberg’s sentencing hearing has recently been set for March 29th. That doesn’t necessarily mean prosecutors needed that much additional time; it appears this was merely the next available sentencing date after prosecutors gave the all clear last week to sentence him.

So while the precise timeframe for Gaetz’s indictment still isn’t clear, there’s no reason to think we’ll have to wait until late March. It really comes down to whether the ex girlfriend was the final grand jury witness. Once testimony is done, you indict and announce.

The big question at this point is what the specific charges against Gaetz will be. Will it include the hideous alleged underage sex trafficking, or will it merely be for more transactional but more easily proven related charges like obstruction or money crimes?

There’s also the question of who else will be indicted as a result of Greenberg’s cooperation. Will Gaetz be the biggest name? Are other high profile Florida politicians caught up in this? We’ll find out soon enough.

Gaetz still says he’s innocent, so presumably he’ll initially plead not guilty. If prosecutors can then convince him that they’ve got a slam dunk case and his lawyers can’t get him off, then they can push him to flip on bigger fish.

As far as when Gaetz ultimately resigns from the House, that’ll come down to if or when House Republican leadership (officially McCarthy, unofficially Trump) selfishly decides that it’s better off cutting him loose than having to keep facing damaging questions about why he’s still in the House. If the House GOP leadership calls on him to resign, he can’t realistically defy this, because at that point there would be the necessary two-thirds vote to expel him.