How to really put Donald Trump’s base out of its misery

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The media likes to focus on Donald Trump’s base because it’s a ratings-friendly narrative. But Trump’s base is the least relevant group in politics. They didn’t elect him. They can’t reelect him. They’re not nearly large enough. It’s always come down to other people.

Every statistical analyst agrees Trump’s base is 15-20% of the country. Yet his approval rating is at about 40%. He has a group of quasi-supporters who are as large as his base. They’ve never loved him, they’re just trying to hang in there with him. They can be convinced not to vote for him.

Most people don’t go into an election trying to decide whether to vote Republican or Democrat. One group tries to decide whether to vote Republican or stay home. The other group tries to decide whether to vote Democrat or stay home. People who say they haven’t decided whether to vote Republican or Democrat? They don’t usually vote at all.

You want to win? You convince the “should I vote Trump or stay home” crowd to stay home. You also convince the “should I vote Biden or stay home” crowd to vote Biden.

Most of you reading this would walk across broken glass to vote for Biden over Trump. Your vote is already factored in, so it’s not mathematically relevant. You only become relevant if you also convince other, less enthusiastic people on your side to go out and vote for Biden.

Similarly, Trump’s core supporters would walk across broken glass to vote for him. Their vote is already baked in. They only become relevant if they convince other, less enthusiastic people to vote for Trump. You don’t have to out-debate or out-argue Trump’s base. You just have to out-work them.

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