How the Democrats won the day and beat House Republicans at their own shutdown game

Saturday’s continuing resolution to keep the government open caught a number of people by surprise. But if you’re a Palmer Report reader, you knew that something like this was likely coming on the final day before the shutdown deadline, because we’d already seen this movie once before and there was nothing to suggest there would be a different ending this time.

Back in May of this year, insurrectionist House Republicans publicly vowed to shut down the government and publicly threatened to oust Kevin McCarthy if he didn’t go through with it. But shortly before the deadline, McCarthy cut a deal to keep the government open. It was never publicly stated by anyone involved, but it was clear at the time that the House Republicans running in toss up districts – the ones most likely to lose their seats if a shutdown happens and plays poorly with voters closer to the middle – forced McCarthy to keep the government open. McCarthy clearly decided he was more afraid of them than he was of the carnival barkers like Greene and Gaetz.

And so even as those same carnival barkers spent this past month of September once again promising a shutdown, there was every reason to believe that the House Republicans in toss up districts were still opposed to a shutdown. For that reason alone there was no reason to expect a different outcome. They were once again going to lean on McCarthy to keep the government open. And McCarthy already made clear that he fears them more than he fears the sedition caucus. So unless McCarthy’s thinking completely changed about which faction of his party he feared the most, he was always likely to put some kind of deal through.

Then a few of those House Republicans in toss up districts began leaking to the media about a week ago that they were prepared to work with House Democrats to avert a shutdown. That was pretty much the ballgame: there very likely wasn’t going to be a shutdown. All the last minute theatrics were a mere matter of McCarthy letting the sedition caucus get to save face a little bit by allowing them to make it look like they almost shut the government down. The thing about Ukraine funding also appears to be simply a way of letting the sedition caucus save a little face, given that the Democrats are now publicly stating that they expect to be able to pass Ukraine funding separately as soon as next week.

So this was, as I predicted from the start, a whole lot of nothing. It shouldn’t be how things work, but it is. The bottom line is that we won, and that makes it a very good day. And the Democrats are really good at this stuff, aren’t they? Sure, the Republicans spent the entire time coughing up the ball. But the Democrats figured out how to play along in such a way that they won. Sometimes winning is as simple as helping guide a self destructing opponent to a loss.

I do want to point out how frustrating it was to watch the entire mainstream media and pundit class, on both sides, spend the past month unanimously insisting that a shutdown was “inevitable.” It was never inevitable. It was never even likely. We knew this because we watched this exact same scenario play out in May, and there was no indiction that anyone involved had changed their positions since then. The media knew all along that a shutdown was unlikely. But that wasn’t a ratings-friendly narrative, so instead the media pretended that a shutdown was definitely going to happen, and then pretended to act surprised when a shutdown didn’t happen.

When Saturday’s deal was reached, the New York Times wrote that it was a “stunning” development. Politico said that it was “shocking.” No, this deal was not stunning or shocking or in any way surprising. Things could have conceivably gone either way, but all along, all available evidence pointed to a shutdown not happening. We need to force ethical reforms in the mainstream media, and we need to do it now.

But back to the topic at hand, we’ll see what happens next. Kevin McCarthy has now twice defied his sedition caucus after they threatened to oust him. So now they pretty much have to oust him, or it becomes an empty threat that they can’t keep using. On the other hand, if they do oust McCarthy, the most likely outcome is that they wouldn’t be able to find the votes for any Republican to become Speaker. That would in turn motivate the House Republicans in the toss up races to work with the Democrats to find a compromise Speaker to finish the term. And that reality alone may be enough to allow McCarthy to keep the gig.

But that’s for them to figure out. This mess was House Republicans’ problem all along, and now it’s their mess to clean up on their end. We won. For all the hand wringing on our side and all the doomsday hysteria from the media, we sure do seem to end up winning a lot of these battles after we’re told we’re going to lose them no matter what. It’s a reminder that what we’re fighting for is not only worth fighting for, but achievable. So let’s take a moment to enjoy this win, let’s make some popcorn as we prepare to watch House Republicans take their loss out on each other, and let’s saddle up for the next fight.