Hold your breath

Today, bizarre though it may seem, America’s Republican Party supports Vladimir Putin’s Russian agenda. It’s an odd artefact of these truly odd times that the onetime head of Britain’s MI6 should appreciate that irony better than most Americans appear to. Perhaps you have to step back across the Atlantic Ocean to see it clearly. Yet, should he return to power, Donald Trump’s promise to remove the United States from membership in NATO and thereby play right into Putin’s hands is taken seriously in Europe.

“And who benefits from such destabilisation?” Asks Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of the UK’s intelligence agency MI6. “Who wants NATO obliterated? Yes, of course, Vladimir Putin, the man who already invaded a sovereign democracy.”

Trump’s Iowa caucuses win, however slender, has added to Europe’s already considerable tension. In fact, Trump’s prospective return to power is seen as a disaster, not only for Europe. Not only would Trump’s return spell catastrophe for NATO, but with the world poised to hit the dreaded 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in the average worldwide temperature this year, Trump’s return would spell catastrophe for the entire planet.

Back in 2016, European politicians watched Trump’s unlikely rise to power with a kind of bemused humour. Today it’s no longer funny, and while it seems highly unlikely that he will make a comeback, that’s small consolation over here. After all, it seemed highly unlikely that he would succeed the first time.

“If Trump … acts hastily and damages the Atlantic alliance,” Britain’s Sky News reported, “that is a big deal for the UK. We’ve put all our eggs in defence terms in the NATO basket. If Trump really is serious about, as it were, changing the balance, I mean the American nuclear umbrella for Europe is, in my view, essential to Europe’s security and defence.”

It’s also clear that Trump is undergoing considerable physical and mental deterioration. Though that’s some relief, over here, it’s ardly surprising, either. After all, Trump must be under enormous stress. Trump is a man who has known only luxury and total control of his circumstances his whole life. Prison would mean an abrupt end to that luxury and control. Trump faces the ultimate loss of power and prestige. It could be history’s greatest fall from grace. So it’s little wonder that he’s deteriorating.

The question is, will Trump unravel quickly enough? Everything is a race this year. On the one hand, America’s justice system is rushing to convict him and put him in prison, while Trump continues to exhibit increasing signs of rapid physical and mental decline. On the other hand, it’s 2024 and November is rushing toward us like a freight train.

Europe is holding its collective breath and crossing its collective fingers. In the end, whatever happens, it’s going to be one hell of a ride for all concerned. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.