Here’s who Elizabeth Warren is most likely to endorse if she drops out

Elizabeth Warren, a great candidate, now sadly has no mathematical path to winning the 2020 Democratic nomination outright, and virtually no chance of winning a contested convention. Some of her supporters don’t want to give up, and that’s understandable. But the bottom line is that it’s solely Warren’s choice when or if she wants to drop out. The big question is who would get her endorsement.

I’ve seen Joe Biden fans speculating about how Elizabeth Warren could drop out and endorse him. Their reasoning: he’s likely going to be the nominee anyway, so she would be joining a winning team. She knows that Biden is a good man who would be a good President, and she knows that Biden would listen to her when it comes to economic reform. I’ve also seen Bernie Sanders fans speculating about how Elizabeth Warren could drop out and endorse him. He’s as far left as she is. Perhaps she could even end up being his running mate.

But let’s be real here. Elizabeth Warren’s support base is a unique group. Some people support her because she’s a progressive. Some people support her because she’s smart and savvy and detail-oriented. If she drops out, her fans are going to split their support between Biden and Sanders. And if she endorses one candidate or the other, it’s probably not going to have much of an impact on how her fans split themselves up.

In other words, if Warren endorses anyone at this time, she’ll be accomplishing essentially nothing. The only outcome is that half her supporters would feel betrayed. Her progressive supporters will be angry at her if she endorses Biden. Her realistic supporters will be angry at her if she endorses Sanders. All that Warren would be doing is to weaken her own clout and support as she prepares to head back to the Senate. She’d be kneecapping herself, and for no reason.

In this wacky 2020 race, we keep seeing candidates dropping out and then immediately endorsing someone. But that’s not normally how it works. Primary candidates more often save their endorsement for later in the primary race, when they want to help put one candidate over the top near the end, or when there’s only one candidate left and it’s time to unite the party. The only reason so many candidates have immediately endorsed Biden after dropping out is that they want to stop Sanders. Warren, who wouldn’t want to bring harm to either of the two remaining candidates, has no motivation to endorse either of them right now – particularly when you consider that her endorsement probably wouldn’t change anything about the race.

Warren’s endorsement will be crucial. Once we finally have a nominee, whether it be (very probably) Biden or (probably not) Sanders, the factions of the Democratic Party will need to unite behind that nominee. Warren, who keeps one foot in each faction, is the one person who’s uniquely suited to unite the party at the convention. And she can only do that if she doesn’t pick sides in the meantime.

I could be wrong about this, but I’m usually not wrong about this kind of thing. Elizabeth Warren would be doing an unbelievably self destructive, divisive, pointless, and stupid thing by endorsing either candidate right now. And I simply refuse to believe that someone as smart and disciplined as Warren could do something that stupid. Everyone is overlooking the scenario in which she drops out but doesn’t endorse anyone yet – but it’s the most obvious scenario.