Here’s the thing about Jack Smith’s list of January 6th charges against Donald Trump

Earlier today Donald Trump announced that he’d received a target letter from Jack Smith related to January 6th, but Trump didn’t spell out any of the charges. This evening Rolling Stone has published a list of specific charges, all of which are serious felonies, but none of which are things like seditious conspiracy. It’s not known if Smith is planning to limit it to just these specific charges, or if this is going to be an opening round with a superseding indictment coming later. We’ll see.

But as we learn more about what Jack Smith is (or is not) charging Trump with for 1/6, remember that you don’t get a “win” by throwing the most aggressive charges you can think of at someone. You bring the specific kinds of charges that you know you can get a conviction on. That’s how you put someone in prison.

So if you see a list of 1/6 charges against Trump and you find yourself thinking “No way, he did even more than that,” that’s not the point. If less aggressive-sounding charges are what will get a jury to convict Trump, that’s what you go with. It’s prosecution 101 stuff.

To be clear, Jack Smith has already hit Trump with 38 felony charges in the other case. So he’s not going to slap Trump on the wrist in the January 6th case. There will be multiple serious felony charges. Smith may decide that it’s smarter to charge Trump with obstructing an official proceeding than, say, seditious conspiracy.

Remember, a conviction on any of these kinds of charges will put Trump in prison for several years – which would practically be a life sentence for him. In contrast, the nightmare scenario would be if Jack Smith brought more “aggressive” charges than he could realistically get a conviction on, and Trump ended up being acquitted.

Regardless of what the charges against Trump end up being, you have to trust that Jack Smith looked at the specific evidence behind each possible charge, and went with the charges that he can actually get a conviction on. It’s not about being “aggressive.” It’s about winning.

Remember the Super Bowl where they’d already made it all the way down the field at the end of the game, and all they had to do was hand the ball to the star running back at the goal line and they’d have almost automatically won, but instead they ran some “aggressive” pass play and lost? That’s the mindset here for Jack Smith. You’ve already gotten all the way to the goal line. Don’t be stupid. Don’t get cute. Don’t try to make a statement. Just do the obvious thing that you know is going to get the job done. Win the game.