With just eight weeks remaining until the midterms, the Republicans are still slightly favored to win the House – but the Democrats continue to incrementally gain ground. On Tuesday the Economist moved Florida’s 27th House District to a Toss Up, putting it into play for Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo. And House Democrat Tom Malinowski got good news in his tough reelection bid in New Jersey, where 538 moved his race from Lean Republican to Toss Up. But there’s more.
On Tuesday the Republicans stupidly nominated a pro-Trump idiot in New Hampshire’s 1st House District, which Cook Political Report says is good news for House Democrat Chris Pappas in what is expected to be a close reelection race. And Cook says Democratic House candidate Seth Magaziner has “more upside” than his Republican opponent in their midterm race for Rhode Island’s only House seat.
The upshot is that these close House races – the ones that will determine the House majority – are incrementally shifting in the Democrats’s favor. Of course elections don’t win themselves, and close races are decided by the side whose activists put in the most work on things like donations, fundraising, phone banking, online volunteering, and spreading the word.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the midterms will be decided by those of you reading this article. If you sit back and do nothing, the Republicans are more likely to win. But if you sign up to get involved in the competitive House and Senate midterm races and put in the work, the Democrats are more likely to win. Close elections – and the midterms will be close – are decided by who proves they want it more by putting the most work.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report