Donald Trump’s long, devastating downfall
Whatever you may think of George Conway, and I think he’s as on the level as any Republican ever is, he says Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Conway’s insights might stem in part from the dire circumstances of his own personal life. Perhaps being married to Kellyanne Conway is like being hanged, or as Dr. Johnson put it, it wonderfully concentrates the mind. Whatever the case, Conway says that Trump’s professional and political life is in tatters, so much so that he can never recover from it. And I think he’s right.
The biggest blow to Trump comes from Mazar’s letter to the Trump Organization. The accounting firm has effectively fired Trump as a client, claiming that his financial statements are no longer reliable. This is devastating news to Trump’s business interests. Or as George Conway tweeted, “This is worse for him than getting impeached twice.”
Conway explains: “The worst thing that could happen to an impeached president is they are removed from office and they go back to doing what they did in their private life. This is his private life. This is what he had to go back to, which is running his own private business. … There could be debt covenants which say you have to keep providing us with financial statements that are reliable, and now he can’t do that. All these financial statements are worthless to him. And there’s no likelihood … that he’s going to be able find another accountant to fix this problem. And it’s ten years’ worth. This is about as calamitous a thing that could happen to a business as you could imagine.”
So what does all that mean? Trump’s lack of reliable financial statements could mean that the Trump credit line could be abruptly cut off. Trump could no longer be able to finance his lavish lifestyle and fund his civil and criminal defenses. Meanwhile his civil and criminal troubles are mounting exponentially.
But that’s just for starters. The biggest problem with Mazar’s declaration comes from what’s known as the Martin Act. “The Martin Act,” Conway says, “because it’s a civil statute and because of the way it’s written, doesn’t require the prosecutor to prove … fraudulent intent. And if these accountants say that these financial statements are not reliable, basically that case is proven.” In other words, this latest disclosure of non confidence in Trump’s financial statements by Trump’s accountants means Trump is guilty of fraud — by definition.
But it gets worse. Up to now Trump has refused to pay Rudy Giuliani’s legal bills, possibly because his lack of cash flow has made it difficult for him. Now it could be impossible, even if he needed or wanted to. Rudy’s potential cooperation with prosecutors (as, indeed, he has started cooperating with the January 6 Committee) could do to Trump what John W. Dean’s cooperation with the Watergate Committee did to Nixon.
Conway also sees signs that Trump’s influence in the Republican Party might be waning, particularly in the Senate. Because Senators have to keep whole states happy and not just individual MAGA districts, Trumpism doesn’t play as well in the Senate as it does in the House, and Mitch McConnell, who understands this, is defecting accordingly.
In short, Trump is imploding before our very eyes. Because it’s wrapped up in obscure legal statutes and opaque consequences, these devastating results might not seem immediately obvious. But Trump is like a huge tree eaten away on the inside by termites. Conway thinks that tree is going to fall. Sooner rather than later would be preferable. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.