Cracks are appearing in Putin’s control over Russia

If even there’s no chance of Vladimir Putin coming to his senses and backing down, the goal of isolating and crushing Russia with financial sanctions is to prompt the Russian people into overthrowing him – or to prompt Putin’s own people to overthrow him from within.

Now we’re seeing incremental signs of progress on both fronts. Key Russian government official Anatoly Chubais resigned earlier today, fled Russia, and told the media that he did it in opposition to Putin’s war in Ukraine. Chubais obviously didn’t try to take Putin down on his way out. But it does help set the stage for others within the Kremlin to potentially make such an effort.

There’s also footage today of a Russian protester hitting Vladimir Putin’s residence with a molotov cocktail. The attack didn’t damage the building. But it’s a sign that some Russian people are now willing to take violent action against Putin – and if there end up being enough of them at once, it’s the kind of thing that can produce results.

Again, this is merely incremental progress. But it’s the kind of thing that can snowball. Much has been made of the polls that show the majority of the Russian people still supporting Putin. But it’s impossible to take such polls seriously, given that most people answering such polls are living in fear of being imprisoned or killed by Putin if they did speak out against him.

We have no idea what percentage of the Russian people actually oppose Putin. But it’s not so much about the percentage. It’s about the Russian people who do oppose him being willing to take to the streets in sufficiently large numbers, and potentially finding allies within the law enforcement officials who are ordered to crack down on them. The more incremental signs we see of a movement against Putin within Russia, the more realistic the odds become that he could actually be taken down from within.