Bernie Sanders is in trouble
If I told you that a certain candidate has only won half the states that have voted so far, and that he just lost the most recent state in a thirty point blowout, would you consider that candidate to be doing particularly well? You’d certainly consider him to be in the running, and maybe or maybe not the frontrunner, but certainly not the presumptive nominee.
But because the candidate I just described above is Bernie Sanders, the media is still painting him as all but a lock for the nomination, simply because he’s Bernie Sanders. There’s ratings gold in painting the race that way, because Bernie’s fans will all stay tuned in to hear it, and the majority of Democratic voters who don’t want Sanders will stay tuned in out of fear that he might end up being the nominee. There’s also the reality that news outlets and pundits are scared to death of backlash from Bernie’s most over-the-top fanatics, if they don’t say that Bernie is doing well. But let’s talk about these results from South Carolina.
We already knew that Sanders would do poorly with black voters. But the polling averages suggested that he might only lose South Carolina by perhaps ten points. Instead, based on the results so far tonight, it appears Sanders will lose South Carolina by as much as thirty points, which means he’s extraordinarily unpopular with black voters. There is now every reason to expect Sanders to continue to do poorly with black voters in every upcoming primary state.
Sanders has to win more than 50% of the delegates in this race, because otherwise by rule this goes to a brokered convention. And based on the way he keeps alienating so much of the party, he’ll have a really hard time coming out of a brokered convention with the nomination. With no one seemingly on the verge of dropping out, and frankly everyone having motivation to stay in the race in case it does go to the convention, Bernie is going to have a hard time reaching 50%.
There’s also another factor here. This past week we’ve seen documented evidence that pro-Trump Republicans in South Carolina were being urged to vote for Sanders in the Democratic primary race, in the hope of helping him win the nomination, because Sanders is the one candidate Trump can beat. But today’s numbers are so atrocious for Sanders, it means one of two things. Either the Republican crossover fell flat. Or Republicans did turn out and vote for Sanders in large numbers, it means he’s so unpopular with black voters, they still couldn’t save him from getting blown out.
There’s also the reality that because Joe Biden won today in such dominant fashion, we’re likely to see a large number of Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar supporters end up voting for Biden in upcoming states, in the hope of stopping Sanders. That’s in addition to the fundraising and endorsement boost that Biden is about to get. So now Sanders is no longer running against a field of opponents who are performing in equally middling fashion. He’s facing a potentially soaring Biden, along with all the other mainstream Democratic candidates.
As of today, the narrative of Bernie Sanders as frontrunner just doesn’t hold water. Even if he wins the largest percentage delegates on Super Tuesday, the reality is that his divisive approach means he’ll need to win more than 50% of the delegates before the convention. If he’d lost by ten points today, it would be one thing. But he’s losing by as much as thirty points. He’s been overwhelmingly rejected by black voters. When has anyone ever won the Democratic nomination without black voters?
