Are Trump’s chances doomed from the start?


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One of the truly disappointing things about so-called “flat earthers” is how incompetent they are. I recently did an admittedly shallow dive into their YouTube presence and was amazed at how bumbling and inarticulate and wholly unconvincing their videos are. But then, what else did I expect?

Then there’s the Donald Trump defence. If Trump’s lawyer’s opening statement is any indication, Trump is in trouble from the start. He’s taken the position that “there’s nothing wrong with trying to influence an election – it’s called democracy.” But there is a law against fraudulently falsifying business records in order to influence an election, and that is the point. Trump unlawfully concealed damaging information from the voting public by way of criminal means. Trump’s defence should be easy to demolish, as easy as it is to demolish a flat earth argument.

In a previous article I anticipated that Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, would call him “President Trump.” And so he has. He is also attempting to portray Trump as a “family man,” another position that will be easy to destroy. There is so much evidence that Trump is far from a “family man” that Mr Blanche might be taking on a huge risk by suggesting otherwise. After all, the prosecution has already introduced a transcript of Trump’s scandalous Access Hollywood tape. That and Trump’s famous indifference to his children and icecold relationship with Melania might make this whole “family guy defence” look disingenuous indeed. And once a defence lawyer loses credibility with the jury it’s very difficult to get it back. Juries do not like being lied to.

Meanwhile the prosecutor Matthew Colangelo gave a lacerating opening statement in which he laid out the mountains of documentary and witness evidence against Trump. In his opening statement he essentially proved his case beyond a reasonable doubt. A rational jury will be hard pressed to decide otherwise. A less intelligent jury will need to be spoon fed. But the end result should be the same, a conviction. In cases where the law is clear and the documentation is indisputable, a different outcome is rare.

Even so, there is no such thing as a sure thing in this life. And the best predictor for a favourable outcome will be the outcome itself. The verdict will be decided by the jury, the sentence will be decided by the judge. No one can say for sure how this trial will end. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.

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