Another dire warning sign for Republicans in 2024
Despite all the doomcasting of the media, Democrats performed surprisingly well throughout much of 2023 – both in special elections and in the few state legislative and local elections that were regularly scheduled for Election Day last month. On average, they outperformed their numbers by seven percentage points in their respective districts, a clear warning sign that they were on track to flip the House of Delegates in Virginia where they also kept the State Senate. It was a clearer sign than ever that Republicans are still paying for overturning Roe v. Wade and their ridiculous culture wars.
Another special election took place on Tuesday night, one of the last of the year, in Florida, which is quickly being written off by pundits as a solid red state. Although the Republican candidate was ultimately successful, the candidate was running in a district that Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020, and only won by 6 points. The media likely won’t cover this because it’s one race on a small scale – one legislative district of the state – and because the Republican candidate won anyway, but what matters is the differentials – that Democratic issues are still bringing voters to the polls for off-year elections.
There’s another special election in Florida to be held in January, this one in a district President Biden won by 5 points, which means if Republicans underperform the way they did on Tuesday, we’ll successfully flip a seat – and it comes on the heels of a lot of other surprise wins we’ve had in the Sunshine State as well, such as flipping the mayorship of reliably Republican Jacksonville. This is yet another sign that polls are continuing to underestimate the Democrats – and it’s a stronger message than ever to organize where we can.
James Sullivan is the assistant editor of Brain World Magazine and an advocate of science-based policy making