The polls closed hours ago, and votes are still being reported in the Georgia Senate runoff races. But they’re being reported more quickly than might have been expected, and things are starting to become more clear.
Thus far Warnock and Ossoff are both outperforming Joe Biden’s November numbers in Georgia by a few points, and if that pattern holds up, they’ll both win. Thus far Warnock is doing a fraction of a point better than Ossoff. In fact Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report, whose calls have been remarkably accurate, has now called the race for Warnock, though major media outlets haven’t called it yet.
Even if we go along with the conclusion that Warnock has won, we still need Ossoff to win in order to take control of the Senate. Ossoff appears to still be on track to win, but narrowly, and it could take all night to see conclusive numbers. But if the current trends hold up, the Democrats will take the Senate.
One thing to keep in mind: at this stage, the total votes counted thus far does not tell us who’s going to win. Even though Loeffler and Perdue are both slightly ahead in total votes counted, the majority of the remaining uncounted votes are in blue-leaning counties. At this point it’s not about the votes that have been counted. It’s about the votes that haven’t yet been counted.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report