Donald Trump is on a clear path to prison in New York for financial crimes. His company and CFO have been indicted and he’s next. But most of the mainstream media is totally ignoring the fact that Trump is on a path to prison, because it conflicts with their current “Trump is making a comeback 2024 and you can’t stop him” ratings grab – even though that narrative is factually baseless.
Some folks like to try to tell me that I’m the one who’s making things up, because I’m nearly the only voice acknowledging the fact that Trump is on a clear path to prison in New York. They assume that the lone dissenting voice must be wrong and disingenuous, because the alternative would be to accept that most of the media is being disingenuous, which is something they don’t want to have to swallow no matter how clearly and factually true it may be. So they simply accept the media’s baseless hyperbolic clickbait about Trump somehow making a magic comeback in 2024 without scrutiny.
The kind of financial crimes Trump will be indicted on have a near 100% conviction rate. Even if you want to be a pessimist and say Trump has a 20% chance of being acquitted, it still means he’ll very likely be in prison before 2024. Yet, with rare and notable exceptions, the media almost never mentions this scenario.
The media spent much of the 2016 election suggesting Hillary Clinton could end up criminally indicted for her emails by election day, even though there never was any real chance of that happening. Yet they never acknowledge that Trump is in the process of being indicted well ahead of 2024.
Instead the media constantly talks about how the DOJ isn’t going to indict Trump. This isn’t even true; no one knows if the DOJ will indict Trump. But the media harps on this supposed doom at the federal level, while ignoring the fact that Trump is in the process of being indicted at the state level.
Trump going to prison before 2024 is the most likely outcome by far. Yet the media is mostly pretending the most likely outcome doesn’t exist, because (for now) it’s the scenario that would give the media the least ratings. Yes, at its worst, the media can be that transactional and dishonest.
At this point Trump’s only realistic shot at avoiding prison is if he croaks first. That is possible. But that scenario would also remove him from the 2024 conversation – so the media has largely decided to ignore Trump’s visibly declining health too. Even some of Trump’s former top advisers are now talking openly about his collapsing health, yet the media barely touches it.
And again, it’s not as if the media has a precedent of ignoring a presidential candidate’s visible health problems. Hillary appeared to faint once, and it was headline news for days across multiple major mainstream media outlets (not just Fox News).
But Trump croaking before 2024 is a wildcard. As opposed to Trump being on a path to prison before 2024, which is an easily verified fact. Trump going to prison is the story; anything else is a far less likely scenario. To ignore the most likely outcome is to commit journalistic larceny. But to admit that Trump is on a path to prison is to admit that there’s no need for viewers to stare helplessly at all this ratings-friendly doomsday clickbait about Trump being on the verge of a magic carpet ride comeback.
In fact the media will even go so far as to try to convince you that you’re not being “vigilant” unless you’re staring helplessly at the screen and driving up their ratings as they tell you that you’re doomed no matter what. But that’s the opposite of vigilance; it’s surrender. You really want to be vigilant about something? The 2021 race for Governor of Virginia is in just three weeks, and it’s going to be a close one. Go donate to, or volunteer for, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. You can do this no matter what state you live in. Doing that will make you vigilant. Go here and help McAuliffe right now.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report