New polling shows that a slight majority of Americans think Donald Trump should be criminally charged for his actions in relation to January 6th. Notably, this is before the January 6th Committee begins its public hearings five weeks from now and educates the general public on just how guilty Trump is.
This is, obviously, bad news for Trump himself. Federal prosecutors don’t make charging decisions based on polling data. But these poll numbers will obviously go up after the public hearings, from the fifties to perhaps the sixties or even seventies. And whether the DOJ charges Trump or not, it’s pretty obvious that Trump has no political future. If a majority of Americans think a candidate belongs in prison, that person is never winning a national election or coming close to it. Trump’s base has always been way too small to get him elected on its own, and the numbers make clear that January 6th cost Trump too many people in the middle.
This is also bad news for the Republicans heading into the midterms. On some level, the January 6th public hearings will be an exercise in convincing mainstream Americans that the Republican Party must be punished in the midterms for having failed to do anything about Donald Trump or its own insurrectionist members.
So it’s not just this Supreme Court women’s rights debacle that gives the Democrats an opening in the midterms. It’s also the upcoming January 6th hearings. In a normal midterm election after a new President is elected, one would expect the opposition party to win. But the Republicans are coughing up the ball in numerous ways, and the Democrats have a strong chance of not only keeping but expanding their majority. Much of it will come down to how much work you, the person reading this, is willing to put in.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report