The real reason the Feds haven’t arrested Rudy Giuliani yet

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Based on what’s already been publicly reported, federal criminal investigators have Rudy Giuliani nailed on a wide variety of crimes involving dirty foreign money. They even have his banking records and electronic communications to prove it. They’ve got Giuliani nailed to the wall. So why haven’t they arrested him yet?

We were reminded of the answer yesterday when Politico reported that the Feds have expanded their criminal probe to cover not only the dirty money he took from the Kremlin via Ukraine, but also the dirty money he took from Romania. This is why they haven’t arrested him yet.

This is all about building a comprehensive enough criminal case against Rudy Giuliani such that he’s all but guaranteed to be convicted at trial. More to the point, it’s all about building such a damning case against Giuliani that even he realizes he’s likely to be convicted. If Rudy defiantly goes to trial, it’ll be a year or two before he’s convicted and then flips on Trump. But if he concludes now that he’s screwed, then he’ll flip on Trump now, meaning the Feds get to take their shot at nailing Trump in this probe a year or two sooner.

The best way to get Rudy Giuliani to realize he’s screwed and to flip, is to keep piling on by digging up even more of his crimes. Ironically, the longer it takes the Feds to nail Rudy, the more quickly he’s likely to flip on Trump, and thus the more quickly the Feds can nail Trump.

   

That’s not what the short attention span types want to hear. But it is how things work. If the Feds arrest Rudy, it’ll be because they’ve concluded that he’s not going to cut a deal prior to arrest, and they’re hoping the arrest will jolt him into reality. But ideally, you’d root for Rudy to cut a deal before he has to be arrested. Rudy is going down – he’ll do prison time either way – but this isn’t about nailing him. It’s about nailing Trump.

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