The normalcy bias of Donald Trump
Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias which leads people to ignore, disbelieve or minimize potential disasters. It’s a specific manifestation of the denial defence mechanism. It is sometimes referred to as analysis paralysis, the ostrich effect, and by first responders, negative panic. In referring to the early explorers and conquerors of the American continent, Kurt Vonnegut summarised normalcy bias this way: “The chief weapon of the sea pirates, however, was their capacity to astonish. Nobody else could believe, until it was much too late, how heartless and greedy they were.”
Normalcy bias is so common that the vast majority of us have indulged in it at one time or another, including me. Sometimes it’s essential to keep us a little saner in insane times.
I am not here today to indulge in normalcy bias, brothers and sisters. I’m here to take a clear eyed view of what could happen to the American government and, by extension, the rest of the world, under Trump. If you dislike or fear such explorations I would encourage you to stop reading this article right now. It’s not going to be pretty.
Let’s take stock. On the one hand we have the federal and lower courts that have a dim view of the shenanigans Elon Musk and his inert, golf-playing Svengali Donald Trump have gotten up to. Recently US District Judge Amir Ali ordered the Trump administration to unfreeze foreign aid. However, on Friday he noticed that the administration — specifically the State Department, the Office of Management and Budget and corresponding officials — “have not complied” with his order to lift the sweeping freeze. Judge Ali therefore directed the government to abide by his previous order without holding any of the parties in violation of the order in contempt. A contempt charge could come later.
This poses the question: if Trump and his pirate ship of thugs decide to completely ignore the courts, what could happen? Well, many of them could be held in contempt, arrested and hauled into court. Where would the arrests come from? From the United States Marshals Service, the enforcement and security arm of the federal judiciary. But, and here’s the problem, the United States Marshals Service is an agency of the US Department of Justice and operates under the direction of the US Attorney General.
This is why the office of the Attorney General must be wholly independent of the executive branch of the government. Clearly, it is not. What’s more, many members of the Marshals Service and other law enforcement agencies — including the FBI, the DEA and ICE — are MAGA. So we need to be prepared for the possibility — some might even say the eventuality — of the Trump administration ignoring the courts altogether, and with impunity. If they can there’s a very good chance they will.
What’s more, one third of the country is MAGA, and another third of the country is not politically engaged, at least, not to the extent that we are. Fully two thirds of America’s military voted for Trump. We the People appear to be outnumbered.
Remember, this is how things stand now. Trump must at least appear to be doing some good and less harm in order to prevent massive and continuous protests outside the White House. He doesn’t wholly own the legacy media and they still speak out against him. But it’s very early days into the Trump lunacy. It staggers the imagination to wonder what harm he could do in four years.
The fact that many of us will not entertain the possibility that Trump may become a dictator with power not unlike Hitler’s or Putin’s is part of our collective normalcy bias. We think the United States is special and somehow immune to such eventualities. I hope it is, but someone needs to explain to me exactly why it is in order for that hope to be converted to certainty.
There is one thing that can save us for the immediate future. Trump values his popularity, and he is beginning to lose some of it in MAGAland. Also, if Trump alienates enough of the voting public for us to take over the House and Senate in 2026 by a supermajority, we could impeach and convict him and throw him out of office. If there is a 2026 election, of course. And if its results are obeyed.
In summary, the American government is now in the hands of criminals who want unlimited power. We can’t rely on their incompetence. Contrary to popular belief, the bureaucracy of Nazi Germany was corrupt and inefficient and Hitler was lazy. Evil requires neither diligence nor competence in great abundance. Only democracy does. We can rely on ourselves and our ability to know the difference between right and wrong despite the lies, the gaslighting and the subterfuge. We can speak truth to power and use the force of our numbers to conquer this outrageous tyranny. I know we can because we did it once before. In 1776.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.