The Kansas Effect
As in the United States, here in Britain we have left-leaning newspapers and right-leaning newspapers. One’s political tastes are generally delineated by which of the two leading non-tabloid papers one prefers, the left-leaning Guardian or the right-leaning Telegraph. (Take a wild guess which one I prefer.) So when the newspaper sometimes referred to as the “Torygraph” predicted a Kamala Harris win in November, I sat up and took notice.
“Kamala Harris is on course to win this year’s US presidential election, a Telegraph poll of swing states predicts for the first time,” the Telegraph reported on Tuesday. “The vice-president is winning in enough battleground states to propel her to the White House in November’s election, following weeks of gains on Donald Trump.”
The Telegraph predicts that, if the election were held today, Trump would capture at most 262 electoral votes. The rest would go to Harris. As you know, it takes 270 votes in the electoral college to win the White House.
But the Telegraph doesn’t take into account the incredible Harris/Walz upward momentum. Nor does it take into account two upcoming seminal events that should drive the final stake into the heart of Vampire Trump: the upcoming Harris and Trump debate on 10 September, and Donald Trump’s criminal sentencing on the 18th. Prosecutor Kamala Harris is going to destroy convicted felon Donald Trump on the debate floor. And then Trump will, eight days later, be the first criminally indicted, tried, convicted and SENTENCED former president in history.
Kamala will be what Donald Trump can never be: magnificently prepared for the debate. After the shockingly poor performance of Joe Biden in last July’s debate, I have no doubt that Kamala is going to take this debate very, very seriously indeed. What’s more, prosecutor Kamala is used to convincing juries of the defendant’s guilt, and she will argue before the greatest jury of all, the American people, against the greatest criminal of all, Donald Trump.
But the biggest factor that the Telegraph and others are missing is what I call the Kansas Effect. Huge numbers of women and some men went to the polls in Kansas in August of 2022 and overwhelmingly defeated the Kansas constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion. It was a stunning defeat in a state known for its reliable majority of MAGA Republicans and evangelical Christians.
This presidential election is the first since the Supreme Court effectively repealed Roe v Wade. As far as I know, no one is taking into account the Kansas Effect. I believe a lot of women in MAGA families will secretly go to the polls, vote for Kamala Harris and tell no one. They will remain silent because they are both afraid of being exposed for harbouring liberal sentiments and resentful of the SCOTUS decision. Many have daughters whose rights they will want to protect. Many will want to protect their own right to choose.
So expect a huge uptick in votes for Kamala in what more and more are calling “Roevember” — courtesy of the Kansas Effect and Donald Trump’s obviously creepy flip flop on the abortion issue. And combine that with the irresistibly charismatic team of Harris and Walz and I think the Kansas effect will join forces with the Kamala Effect to produce an unstoppable victory for We the People. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.