THAT’S NOT HOW ANYTHING WORKS
Trump’s approval rating is not suddenly 49%. That’s an outlier poll, not in line at all with the averages. TV pundits love to drum up ratings by touting outlier polls for shock value. The polling averages are usually proven accurate. The media usually misrepresents the polls. MSNBC and CNN pundits will tout Trump’s lowest approval rating poll number one week, then his highest number the next week, then his lowest number again the week after that. All while ignoring the polling averages, which haven’t moved at all.
This is not in any way unique to Trump coverage. Cable news networks have always done this stuff. The 24 hour news cycle sometimes forces them to create the appearance of news or movement on a given front when there isn’t any. To give you an idea of how absurd the cycle was this week, cable news hosts tripped over each other to report the new 49% approval rating number from Gallup, while almost completely ignoring the new 41% approval rating from Reuters. The 41% is about where the polling averages are. Reporting the 49% number in isolation, while ignoring overall data, is about as valid as reporting that a football team scored the most points in the second quarter, without bothering to mention that the team in question lost the game.
If you’re going to watch MSNBC or CNN all day and take what you hear at face value in general, keep in mind that what you’re hearing on TV about the polls is nearly always being reported incorrectly. Just filter out any polling analysis as you’re watching. Or let your favorite cable news hosts know that you’re tired of hearing them quoting individual polls out of context, and that they’ll have more credibility if they start placing new polls within the context of the polling averages.
Polls are highly useful when reported and interpreted correctly. Unfortunately, because cable news feeds you outlier polls for shock value, and then you later see that those polls have turned out to be wrong, many of you mistakenly conclude that the polls tend to be wrong. It’s commonplace to see cable news networks report Trump’s lowest poll number one week, then report his highest poll number the next week, then go back to reporting his poll number the next week, just to create the appearance of movement in both directions – even as his average approval rating doesn’t move an inch.
Even in 2016, the final polling averages were correct within the margin of error. After Comey’s last minute letter, the polling averages had Hillary Clinton up by four points in the popular vote. She won by two points, which was within the stated three point margin of error. That’s not much consolation for the past three years. But it shows that the polls do tend to be correct. It’s the people yelling out-of-context poll numbers on television who ruin it for the rest of us.
