The first major poll conducted after the Supreme Court leak (Yahoo / YouGov) has the Democrats 5 to 13 points ahead of the Republicans in the midterms. Now we have to put in the voter outreach and registration work and make it happen. Everything is riding on it.
When asked whether they’ll vote Democrat or Republican in the midterms, voters gave Democrats a 5 point advantage. When asked whether they’ll vote for a “pro choice Democrat” or a “pro life Republican,” voters gave the Democrats a whopping 13 point advantage.
Notably, this suggests that a number of people who are normally so far removed from politics they don’t even know which party is which, are now vowing to vote for the “pro choice” party. This means we have work to do on voter education, first time voter registration, etc.
This is just one poll, we’ll need to wait for the other polls to be updated to see where the new polling averages are, voter suppression may eat up a few points, all the usual disclaimers. But these initial numbers are what you’d hope for.
One thing to watch: one major polling outlet (not this one) had the Democrats one point ahead of the Republicans just before the Supreme Court leak – suggesting the Democrats already had the momentum. Now these numbers. What’s the trajectory here? The averages will reveal that.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report